Climate adaptation becomes less effective as the world warms - Guest post for Carbon Brief

Climate adaptation becomes less effective as the world warms

A Guest post for Carbon Brief

This guest post is by:

Dr Tabea Katharina Lissner, research director at the Global Solutions Initiative.

Tessa Möller, a research intern in the energy, climate and environment programme at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).

Dr Martina Angela Caretta, assistant professor in the department of human geography at Lund University.

Dr Aditi Mukherji, director of the Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Impact Action, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR).

From flooding in New Zealand and wildfires in Canada through to drought in the Middle East and extreme heat across the northern hemisphere, last year provided a powerful demonstration of the impacts of climate change.

With global temperatures over the past decade around 1.2C warmer than pre-industrial levels, the impacts already urgently demand adaptation investments to avoid mounting losses.

However, research suggests that existing limits and barriers to adaptation could take decades to overcome, particularly in vulnerable countries. And while adaptation measures are gradually being put in place, how might they be further affected by continued warming?

In our new study, published in One Earth, we investigate how the effectiveness of well-established adaptation options in relation to water changes as the world warms.

Our findings show that the effectiveness of water-related adaptation declines markedly once warming passes 1.5C above pre-industrial levels – from a central estimate (median) of 90% to 69%, 62% and 46% at 2C, 3C and 4C, respectively.

With the implementation of adaptation already lagging behind what is needed, our findings show that warming beyond 1.5C needs to be avoided for effective adaptation to be possible.

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Original Author: Ana Lipman

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